Scientific goal of the project
Scientific goal of the project by:
Description of the problem to be solved
The essence of regional development is spontaneous differentiation in the space of growth and socio-economic development, determined by the heterogeneity of resources of individual territories. This leads to inequalities perceived as the regularity of the functioning of the capitalist economy based on the market mechanism. However, their scale requires monitoring, due to the possibility of creating barriers that pose challenges to the proper functioning of the socio-economic system (Amin, 2004; Harvey, 2016). Identification, explanation of the mechanisms of formation, and searching for opportunities to reduce development inequalities in space is the essence of regional policy. Its role increases with the dissemination of the approach characteristic of economics/space of flows (Hudson, 2004; Castells, 2004), emphasizing the fundamental importance of relations and not states in the modern economy. This is particularly important and topical in the face of new regional policy challenges resulting from constantly changing global conditions (Churski et al., 2018; Churski et al., 2020).
Contemporary development shocks are definitely deeper and farther-reaching than the previous ones that the world economy went through, including those related to the Great Depression (1929-1933), the Oil Crisis (1973) or the Financial Crisis (2007-2009) (Thorpe, Loughridge, Picton, 2020). According to the authors of the Global Economic Prospects (World Bank, 2022a) published in June 2022, the invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation was another supply shock to the global economy, which was still experiencing the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The next edition of this report, published in January 2023, proves that, according to World Bank analysts, the depth of the global economic slowdown will be greater than expected. It is assumed that global economic growth in 2023 will not exceed 1.7% and will be the lowest in three decades (World Bank, 2023). It is emphasized that the scale of recession and economic slowdown will be very spatially differentiated (World Bank, 2022b).
It should be remembered that, as Martin and Sunley (2020) point out, developmental shocks may be of violent and intense disturbances or so-called slow-burn pressures. Unfortunately, these two groups of impacts currently overlap, creating a bundle that is often difficult to identify, making it even more difficult to effectively limit their negative consequences, which is even more complicated at the regional and local levels. In addition, development shocks are currently very diverse in nature, and their consequences are considered on many levels. Disturbances resulting from the cyclical volatility of the economic situation, which has been typical of a free market economy since its inception, are classically indicated (Wagemann, 1930; Burns, Mitchell, 1946). Unfortunately, they become irregular, and their multidimensional impact, due to the growing scale of connections resulting in mass flows of people, goods and information, concerns the whole world, generating cascading consequences from the global to the local scale (Vina, Liu, 2023).
On the one hand, they lead to fundamental changes in the structure of global production and global demand, often resulting in permanent changes in global supply chains (Hashiguchi et al., 2007), as well as in global social relations (Yue, Le, 2012). On the other hand, they change the way business processes are managed (Röglinger et al., 2022). It should be remembered that the effects of developmental shocks do not affect everyone in the same way. They are particularly painful and deep for vulnerable groups (Headey & Ruel, 2022) and economically disadvantaged areas (Asafo-Adjei et al., 2021).
At the same time, it should be remembered that they take place in conditions of increasing global challenges related to the progressing climate change, which not only cannot be ignored, but also create additional challenges for effective actions to limit the consequences of economic and social shocks. Unfortunately, their negative impact is definitely more severe for weaker territories (Martin et al., 2016). As a consequence, this leads to noticeable changes in political behavior. They are manifested in the growing level of dissatisfaction, which is the basis for the development of populism and the decline of public trust in political elites (Rodríguez-Pose, 2017, Margalit, 2019). They also result in fundamental changes in the size and structure of the provided development intervention (Rehm, 2022).
Research hypotheses
The main objective of the project is to identify spatial differences in selected social and economic consequences of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and to explain their impact on the transformation of the regional development process and the evolution of regional policy in the European Union (EU) countries and regions. The main goal can be specified in the form of three groups of specific goals: cognitive, methodological, and application.
The research objectives of the project include:
- Systematization of the theoretical foundations of the regional development process and the evolution of regional policy in the conditions of development shocks,
- Identification of the scope of the most important social and economic consequences of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine in EU countries and regions, and their impact on changes in the spatial diversification of socio-economic development,
- And identification of the social and economic consequences of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and activities related to limiting them, in the opinions of residents, non-governmental organizations, entrepreneurs and authorities of selected European regions.
The methodological objectives of the project are:
- Developing a conceptual model for identifying and systematizing the spatial differences in the social and economic consequences of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, based on the theoretical foundations of evolutionary economic geography and the concept of resilience;
- Modeling spatial differences in selected social and economic consequences of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine in the system of EU member states;
- And modeling the resilience of selected regions to the social and economic effects of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and its impact on the shape of international economic cooperation, including the identification of adaptation measures.
The application objective of the project:
The formulation of recommendations regarding the direction and operationalization of regional policy activities, taking into account the consequences of changes in development factors occurring as a result of the impact of the social and economic consequences of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.
The research scope:
The research is carried out in three spatial systems: EU Member States, the regions of the EU Member States corresponding to the NUTS 2 units, and the selected NUTS 2 test regions, identified on the basis of the results of the quantitative analysis carried out at the level of EU countries and regions, located in four Member States: Poland, Finland, Germany, Romania.
The time range of the analysis:
The analysis covers the decade spanning 2014-2023, with particular emphasis on the consequences of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine (2022-2023), subsequent energy and economic crisis, overlapping with the effects of earlier SARS-CoV2 (2019-2023) crises. Field studies aimed at collecting qualitative data in the test regions will be carried out in 2024-2025.