Research methodology
The research methodology by:
Method of research implementation
The implementation of the research project will involve the use of various qualitative and quantitative research methods, with the utilization of both secondary and primary empirical research material and data. The research plan involves two major stages of qualitative inquiry. The methodology of each of them will be outlined in detail below.
Typological research
At the empirical stage of typological research, we will work on the operating spatial units of countries and all 269 NUTS-2 regions of the European Union (Statistical regions…, 2022). Based on previous literature review, and considering the availability of data for these regions, we will define a set of indicators of vulnerability and effects of the Russian invasion on Ukraine on the regions’ socio-economic performance.
We will use Eurostat and other sources of public statistical data available in Europe at the regional territorial scale, together with the results of recent ESPON research projects as the data sources. We will also use the projections of impacts of shocks based on existing spatial-sectorial general equilibrium modelling approaches such as the Rhomolo model (Garcia Rodriguez et al., 2023). As a result of the collection of the data for the recent period (from the date of first data availability until the last data availability, at least 2022), we will construct a spatial panel socio-economic database.
We will then process the database using three sets of methods:
- Data reduction,
- Explanatory regression,
- Item grouping.
First, we will simplify the matrix in order to uncover the internal structure of the data variation and select the indicators representative for dimensions in data structure. We will use widely-applied data reduction methods, such as principal component analysis.
Second, we will produce regression models employing quasi-experimental designs such as the difference-in-difference modelling design to find the importance of several structural and geographic factors hypothesized based on previous literature (e.g. geographic proximity to Russia and Ukraine, dependence on Russian energy resources, and economic links to global supply chains), on the impacts of the war on European regions as measured by the indicators.
Third, we will perform a typology of the analyzed regions to identify groups of similar profundity and structure of the impacts of the war in Ukraine. We will do so based on the indicators mentioned above, and with the use of clustering methods selected based on suitability for the study out of hierarchical (Ward), centroid based (k-means), density based (DBSCAN and OPTICS) or distribution-based methods (Gaussian mixtures; Yang et al., 2012).
Idiographic research
In the following empirical stage of idiographic research, primary data will be used on a larger scale coupled with qualitative data based on case study methodology (Cresswell and Poth, 2017). At this stage, we will focus on four cases study areas, selected based on the typology and practical considerations, including the possibilities of cooperation with international academic partners in designing the field studies. At this stage, we will employ three sources of information.
The first source will include statistical data, reports and policy documents produced by the national and regional authorities and institutions. This information, considerably exceeding the data provided by Eurostat, will allow to evaluate the recent changes to the socio-economic situation by considering aspects of presence of refugee populations, inequality, labor market, energy structures and local energy market circumstances, the measurement of which is of special importance to the evaluation of the consequences of crises (Stiglitz, Fitoussi and Durand, 2019).
The goal of this stage will be to provide a detailed description of the dynamics of the socio-economic situation in a specific area, rather than generalizing the knowledge of other areas. For this reason, statistical analysis methods will not be used, except for descriptive statistics.
The contextual knowledge on the regional socio-economic consequences of the current political situation, attitudes, and strategies of adaptation will be provided by representatives of various groups of local stakeholders:
- Representatives of regional and local authorities,
- Entrepreneurs operating in a specific region,
- Citizens’ organizations.
Devices and apparatus used in research
In each of the four regions, individual interviews will be conducted with representatives of these groups selected for a specific purpose (Kvale, 2010). We will first map the networks of local actors and based on that select the informants to consider diverse stakeholders’ perspectives. Simultaneously, we will develop interview scripts on the basis of previous stages of the project: literature review and the specifics of the regions’ vulnerability to the effects of the war. The interview topics will include the perception of development trajectories of regions, the extent to which Russian invasion in Ukraine affects the region in various economic and social spheres, the territorial and sectorial differences in the spread and intensity of the effects of the war, responses from local public and private actors, and informants’ evaluation of thereof, and projected future challenges of local socio-economic development in this context. We will conduct interviews in person or via telephone or videocall. We plan to conduct 12 interviews per study area. Transcribed recordings of the interviews will be coded and interpreted with the use of content and thematic analysis (Gibbs, 2023).
In order to describe quantitatively the significance of the topics identified in the interviews, the last method of collecting data in this part of the project will be used: survey among samples of residents of the regions, which will be accessed using standard sampling procedures with the help of contracted local survey agencies. Survey research will be carried out as telephone (CATI), web (CAWI) mail or personal interviews (PAPI), depending on the accessibility to respondents in specific region. We will attempt to collect samples of around 600 respondents in each of four study regions, representative for each population in each region, which will allow us to use statistical methods for interregional comparisons. The survey questionnaire will be developed based on the preliminary results of the previous stages of the analysis. We will ask primarily about personal experience and perception of the changes of the economic situation, living conditions, and multidimensional risk and safety after the Russia invasion in Ukraine. We will later use exploratory and explanatory statistical techniques in order to describe and explain the drivers of the changes of personal situation and its perception depending on the place of residence, and personal socio-economic conditions.
The last stage of the analysis is to synthesize the results of empirical analysis and formulate generalizations and recommendations for European regional policy based on the conclusions from the previously described empirical research. At this stage, we will not produce new empirical data or material.
