Research concept and plan
Research concept and plan of work by:
A general research plan and detailed research goals
The plan of the project consists of four major stages:
In-depth systematic review of existing literature, expert reports, policy documents and statistical data sources on the role of shocks in the regional development and regional policy.
Three axial topics:
- Understanding the role of development shocks provided by the evolutionary economic geography, including the related theoretical concepts of vulnerability, resilience and adaptation,
- The role of crises in European Union policy, including regional The impacts of the financial crisis, COVID-19 pandemic, Russia-Ukraine war and the climate crisis on the EU policy,
- The social and political consequences of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine considered in various spatial scales and contexts.
Methods:
- An analysis of existing data,
- Desk research.
- Description and explanation of the spatial differences in the level of vulnerability and effects of the war on European regions.
- Quantification of the vulnerability and the impact of war on EU regions, and grouping the regions into types of similar characteristics in terms of depth and structure of vulnerability.
Data: Eurostat and other sources of public statistical data available in Europe at regional territorial scale as the data sources.
Methods:
- Data reduction,
- Explanatory regression,
- Clustering statistical methods.
- To identify the opinions of actors, present in the areas: residents including new transient populations of refugees, non-governmental organizations, entrepreneurs and regional and local authorities, on the diverse social and economic consequences of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.
- To find the factors and processes shaping regions resilience to the effects of war, and to identify the adaptation strategies used by the actors present in the region.
Data and Methods:
- Analysis on statistical data, reports and local policy documents, produced by the national and regional authorities and institutions.
- Survey with samples of the population of permanent residents of the region, and the population of Ukrainian refugees residing in the areas.
- Individual interviews with representatives of regional and local authorities, entrepreneurs operating in a specific region, citizens’
- Formulating generalizations and recommendations for European regional policy based on the conclusions from the previously described empirical research,
- Dissemination of the results in academic publications,
- Presentations and discussion of the results at national and international scientific conferences and seminars.
The implementation of the project will start with the conceptualization stage. It will involve an in-depth systematic review of existing literature, expert reports, policy documents and statistical data sources on the role of shocks in regional development and regional policy. We will focus our review on three axial topics:
- Understanding the role of development shocks provided by the evolutionary economic geography, including the related theoretical concepts of vulnerability, resilience, adaptation, etc.,
- The role of crises in the European Union policy, including regional policy. Within this topic, we will look at empirical and conceptual accounts on the impacts of the financial crisis, COVID-19 pandemic, Russia-Ukraine war and the climate crisis on EU policy,
- The social and political consequences of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine considered in various spatial scales and contexts; we will particularly review available data-based studies done in the EU and member states.
The effect of this stage of the study will be the specification of detailed scope of our interest, research vocabulary and working hypothesis for the subsequent empirical stages of the study. The conceptualization stage will not be limited in time to the first stage of the implementation of the project; it has started already at the stage of the preparation of the grant application and will be continued by means of monitoring the literature and results of other studies and political discussion over the course of the implementation of the project.
The next two stages involve empirical research to build new knowledge based on secondary and primary information sources, and with the application of quantitative and qualitative research methods on various geographical levels of analysis. The typological empirical research stage will aim to describe and explain the spatial differences in the level of vulnerability and effects of the war on European regions. Our research will involve the quantification of the vulnerability and the impact of war on EU regions and grouping the regions into types of similar characteristics in terms of depth and structure of vulnerability. We will take into account various socio-economic indicators regarding, among others:
- Demography and migration, including refugees’ arrival,
- The structure of economic activity, including the energy vulnerability of industry,
- International economic relations, including exposure to the disruption of international supply chains,
- The structure of energy provision, including dependency on the Russian energy sources (Celi et al., 2022).
At this stage, we will use secondary statistical data from the open Eurostat database and from ESPON research projects, as well as other sources identified at the first stage of the analysis. After collecting the joint database, the data will be processed using dimension reduction, regression models and clustering statistical methods. This typological stage of the research will be instrumental in selecting the research areas representing various types of regions for the next idiographic research stage.
In the third stage of idiographic empirical research, we move down in the geographic scale of our inquiry into four selected case study regions and study them in detail based on the quantitative and qualitative primary research and secondary sources of information. The first aim of this stage of the study will be to identify the opinions of actors present in the areas:
- Residents, including new transient populations of refugees,
- Non-governmental organizations,
- Entrepreneurs,
- Regional and local authorities,
on the diverse social and economic consequences of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. The second aim will be to find the factors and processes shaping regions’ resilience to the effects of war, and to identify the adaptation strategies used by the actors present in the region.
The four case study areas we choose are NUTS-2 territorial units used by Eurostat statistics, which often correspond to basic administrative divisions in member states. There are 269 NUTS-2 units within EU countries, according to the 2021 regionalization (and further 102 in the UK and other partner countries; Statistical regions…, 2022). We will select four regions based on two sets of criteria. First, the results of earlier typological research will indicate regions of different characteristics of the consequences of Russia aggression. Second, the practical criteria, includes the ease of conducting case study research using local knowledge and international partners of the study located in Finland (University of Eastern Finland), Germany (Leibniz Institute for Regional Development and Structural Planning) and Romania (Bucharest University of Economic Studies). The research on site will include quantitative studies – a survey with samples of the local population, and qualitative studies, including analysis of local policy documents, as well as individual interviews with local actors – politicians, entrepreneurs, and representatives of non-governmental organizations.
The final stage will include creating generalizations and recommendations for European regional policy based on the conclusions from the previously described empirical research. The main aim of this stage will be to provide recommendations regarding the direction and operationalization of regional policy activities, considering the consequences of changes in development factors occurring as a result of the impact of the social and economic consequences of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, and acknowledging the inter-regional variations in the scope and structure of the effects of shock event and the need to implement place-based policy approaches. Within this stage, we will also work on the dissemination of the results in academic publications in renowned journals. However, the results of the specific stages of empirical research will be regularly subjected to academic discussions as the project proceeds. We will regularly present them at seminars and conferences, also those that are a platform for international discussion. One of the channels for disseminating research results will be also a website dedicated to the research tasks being carried out.
Results of preliminary research
The project team leader has years of experience in systematic analyses of the reasons, changes, and consequences of the social differences in the socio-economic development of European regions. The starting point for this research was systematizing the factors of regional development, taking into consideration the consequences of the intervention of regional policy following Poland’s integration into the European Union (Churski, 2008). Next, the scope of the research was put into more detail with respect to the region of Wielkopolska and the diversity of the economic, social, and place-based cohesion within the region (Churski, 2009).
The obtained results triggered more in-depth analyses of the local conditions being the fundamental determinants of development processes on every spatial scale. This led to comprehensive research on the factors affecting the distribution of the socio-economic economic growth and economic stagnation areas in central and Eastern Europe (Churski, 2014). More detailed studies on the spatial socio-economic development patterns included the study on the regional specialization in the conditions of heterogeneous space (Kopczewska, Churski et al, 2017).
By taking into consideration the dynamically changing global conditions, the contemporary challenges of the regional policy have also been identified and attention has been drawn to the need for re-thinking the ways of identifying, interpreting, and addressing the factors of socio-economic development on various spatial scales in Europe (Churski et al, 2021). The resulting experience allows for a better understanding of the conditions and regularities behind the analyzed processes; therefore, they help to better select the indices, to apply methods appropriate to the problems, and to hold a discussion and in-depth explanation.
Changes in the regional socio-economic development patterns affected by EU regional policy were also a subject of research led by the members of the team. One of their objectives was to determine the impact of the Cohesion Policy on the economic growth of regions and the change in development disparities between regions (Dubownik et al., 2019, 2023). The analyses led to the conclusion that in the period of spending the funds of the European Union programs from the 2007–2013 budget, the differences in the level of development of both voivodships and subregions increased. This may mean that the European Union funds allocated to the Cohesion Policy and the Common Agricultural Policy did not result in leveling out development differences within the country, or that their impact did not offset other factors opposing convergence. Interestingly, the developmental divergence was more visible in the case of voivodeships than subregions. The results of the research conducted at the local level indicate, in turn, that central units absorbed much more funds from EU policies than in areas located in the closer and further vicinities (Churski et al., 2016).
The leader of the research team has also researched the vulnerability, resilience and adaptation of households and entrepreneurs to the economic development shocks, namely the financial and economic crisis of the turn of two first decades of the 20th century (Churski et al., 2014). Currently, members of the application team (leader and contractors) are implementing the TIPERICO project, the purpose of which is to identify the correctness of changes in the socio-economic development of the inner peripheries in Poland, with particular emphasis on their sensitivity and resistance to the consequences of the SARS-CoV-2 crisis (see table below). The typology of previously designated urban functional areas (MOF), using a mixture of Gaussian distributions, allowed for the identification of areas that meet the adopted peripherality criteria (Churski et. al., 2023).
The applied procedure showed that the actual functional links differ from the current administrative division, which is a premise for conducting analyzes of the differentiation of the level of regional development in terms other than supra-municipal boundaries. Another important observation is the identification of areas with a high gradient of territorial inequalities in eastern and north-western Poland. There, the areas with the highest level of development are directly adjacent to the inner periphery. This gives an argument for shaping spatial policy in such a way as to extend the functional links of emerging metropolitan areas as a mechanism for overcoming marginalization. In addition, it was confirmed that territorial inequalities resulting from historical conditions now overlap to a large extent with differences related to the current modernization processes.
Table. Internal peripheries in the face of the economic crisis and the global epidemic – selected findings.
Inner Peripheries in post-COVID Europe | |
CHALLENGES | CHANCES |
COVID-19 | New opportunities of distant work |
War in Ukraine | New citizens |
Global supply chain crisis | Restructuring supply chains |
Energy crisis | Energy transition |
Inflation | According to The 8th Cohesion Report (2022), we need “creating new economic perspectives for less developed and peripheral regions”, “strengthening urban-rural links and the role of smaller cities and towns”, “addressing the needs of left behind places” |
Geographically uneven impacts – weaker position of areas with less relational capacity | |
The next stage of research involves assessing the changes that have occurred as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, in the social and economic dimensions, and identifying the vulnerability of individual industries and economic sectors to the shocks of the COVID-19 crisis, along with assessing the intensity of spreading and diffusion of development processes in spatial terms between areas inner peripheries and urban centers which are sub-regional centers of functional areas. The war in Ukraine is, along with the pandemic, another shock factor conditioning the economic development of European regions.
Therefore, it is necessary to prepare in-depth analyses of the impact of development shocks on specific groups of countries and selected regions. Research designed and conducted in cooperation with selected research centers from other EU countries will allow the determination of which factors and events and to what extent positively and negatively affect regional development and its diversity. Ultimately, it will be possible to formulate recommendations regarding the direction and methods of implementation (including the selection of instruments) of development interventions in the EU.
Risk analysis
In the risk analysis, we used the PRINCE2 method of project management, according to which the researchers need to:
- Identify the risk (risk classification in a research project (Ober, Wodarski 2014),
- Evaluate and classify the risk in the context of the likelihood of an event and its impact on the project (on a scale of 1-4 for both categories),
- Manage risk i.e. agree on the right responses.
NO | RISK FACTOR | RESPONSE | PLANNED PRECAUTION MEASURES |
R1 | Technical Poor quality of the qualitative and quantitative data. | Mitigation | The data will be obtained exclusively from official sources like Eurostat, and from other national and regional official statistical institutions. In primary studies, including interviews and surveys, precise procedures of verification of the quality of data will be introduced. |
R2 | Technical Delays in obtaining empirical data for external reasons. | Mitigation / Acceptance/ Contingency plan | In case of delays, reminders will be sent. In situations when the deadline cannot be objectively met, it is recommended to accept the delay or to develop a contingency plan and to obtain other data. |
R3 | Technical Lack of a proper method of analyzing data; the technology behind the analysis. | Mitigation | Various analysis methods will be applied in order to minimize the risk. |
R4 | Managerial Financial settlements will not meet the NSC standards. | Mitigation | Close cooperation with the Executive Agency, entrusting experienced individuals with the settlements, implementing clear-cut procedures specifying how expenses should be incurred and settled. |
R5 | Managerial Improperly classified costs, a significant increase in research cost. | Mitigation /Acceptance | Verification of the project’s financial assumptions at the stage of the project feasibility analysis; in the case of objective reasons, looking for savings, shifting the funds between categories. |
R6 | Managerial Conflicts, wrong level of cooperation as part of the consortium, untimely providing of the results. | Mitigation | Planning and implementing the Communication management strategy, close cooperation and monitoring of the project progress; applying procedures typical of project management methodologies. |
R7 | Organizational Extended purchasing procedures, problems with applying the public procurement procedures. | Mitigation | Entrusting individuals with appropriate experience with purchasing. |
R8 | Organizational Loss of key project resources. | Mitigation | Close cooperation and regular exchange of work results in order to substitute the resources if need be. |
R9 | External Abrupt and unexpected change in the political situation (e.g., escalation of Russia-Ukraine War, Ceasefire or Peace Treaty) invalidating the initial assumptions and aims of the project. | Acceptance | Adjusting conceptualization of the research aim and developing methods and interpretations according to the current situation. |
R10 | External No willingness to cooperate on the part of public and private actors in case study regions. | Mitigation | Cooperation with international academic partners with expertise and experience in conducting social studies in case study countries. |
Level of identified risk
SEVERITY / LIKELIHOOD | LIKELIHOOD | ||||
I (0-25%) | II (26-50%) | III (51-75%) | IV (76-100%) | ||
Severity | A (1-25%) | R4, R5 | R7 | R3 | – |
B (26-50%) | – | R6, R10 | R9 | – | |
C (51-75%) | – | R1, R, R8 | – | – | |
D (76-99%) | – | – | – | – | |
As the Table suggests, none of the risks have been identified as high; all the types are either low or moderate. Following the risk analysis, we can safely assume that the project will be completed, and its goals will be accomplished. In the course of project implementation, a risk register will be kept for risk management purposes.
